Current draft is found uploaded on the ESSI blog.

Executive Summary

Scientific evidence indicates that global climate change is one of the most important issues facing the human race today. Its effects are likely to be felt most at high northern latitudes, and it is also in this region where some of the important processes involved in global climate change occur. The Iceland region and adjacent seas is ideally situated for the study of processes closely related to global climate change, including oceanographic processes that drive the global ocean conveyor belt, and sea-ice formation in the northern seas that acts as a regional amplifier on climate. Gaining a better understanding of the processes taking place in the region is vital in order to fill knowledge gaps in existing international research programs on global change. This calls for scientific monitoring, information on climate change in the north, data dissemination and forecasting of trends in the oceanographic, climatic and other environmental fields, that can have profound impact on decision-making and improve the economic security and resilience of our modern society.
The establishment of a new international research institute (ESSI) in Iceland is proposed to address this important need. Adopting an earth systems science approach, the scientific concept of ESSI relies on interdisciplinary work between scientists, bridging the fields of oceanography, cryosphere studies, geology and climatology/meteorology, in order to gain a unified view of the climate system and the problem of climate change. ESSI is envisaged as a center of excellence in global change research. This will be achieved by the recruitment of world-class scientists to the institution and the implementation of a novel research program, taking advantage of the geographic location of ESSI in a critical region with respect to oceanographic and cryospheric (glaciers and sea-ice) processes. This will place ESSI among the preeminent research institutes in global change research around the globe, where tools of modern science and software technology are arranged in a way that facilitates analysis and diagnostics on the state of the atmosphere-ocean environment in the sub-Arctic region.
The underlying objective with the establishment of ESSI is to enable advancement of global change science, trans-disciplinary studies, and to contribute to improved adaptation to changing environmental conditions, all within the auspices of a single entity. In particular, ESSI will address six lines of activities related to regional climate change in the North Atlantic region and its impact on global climate change:

Monitoring: Measurements of Denmark Strait Ocean Fluxes. It is proposed that ESSI take responsibility for monitoring one oceanographic parameter that is of fundamental significance, both in the regional context as well as in global climate research.

Science: Climate and the cryosphere, ice-caps, snow and sea-ice. Appearance and disappearance of sea-ice is one of the most important amplifiers of climate change. ESSI would track sea-ice conditions and develop input to Global Circulation Models that replicate adequately the conditions in the Central Arctic during the winter when the freezing and sea-ice formation takes place.

Research: Regional coupled atmosphere ocean model climatology data. ESSI would carry out advanced studies of high-resolution regional climatology and other hindcast data on the state of the atmosphere and the ocean to allow for a new set of studies that take in the impact from short-term and long-term trends and temporal and spatial variability.

Outreach: Informatics – data access, analysis and publishing. ESSI would support end-to-end delivery of new information and findings to facilitate Climate Change research and associated impact analysis studies through Informatics, i.e. structured computer-aided data access, analysis and publishing.

Benefits: Econometrics and Regional Climate Diagnostics. ESSI would deliver valuable knowledge through deriving parameters on regional and global climate conditions that have direct and indirect impact on many macro-economic variables, like the supply and demand for energy, consumer items, travel, transport and service requirements. Through engaging in econometric studies, the applied research and derived knowledge can be turned into tangible benefits, contributing to economic resilience and competitive edge.

Revenue: Establish and market an advanced climate expert service system with high potential revenue spin, directed towards fisheries, offshore transports and trade with natural resources.

ESSI is not conceived as a traditional research institute, but as an activity with a broad scope that cuts across the entire field, from basic science to applied science, with monitoring, data distribution and dissemination of information that creates economic value for the institute and eventually sustains it financially. Financial projections indicate that ESSI could be a viable and self-sustaining body within a period of seven years.

The following key steps would constitute a plan of action for the establishment of ESSI:

• Finalize enabling agreements with the Government of Iceland and other potential funders.
• Develop the key infrastructure for ESSI.
• Identify and implement scientific appointments for the areas of activity.
• Establish the research areas and relevant programs.
• Generate sufficient outside revenue to establish financial self-sufficiency after seven years.
• Leverage research investment and scientific talent through outreach activities.

ESSI would be established as a limited company, run by a director who is appointed by the shareholders. An advisory committee would work with the director in setting the research and administrative policy. It is proposed that ESSI would be initially staffed by a minimum of eight scientists.

Financial projections show that ESSI could evolve into a self-sustained and profitable organization in 5 years, with 3.5-4 M€ cumulative funding requirement or venture loan guarantee for this start-up period. ESSI offers an interesting partnership structure for private and governmental organizations that would be interested in joining on different terms of reference. Such partnerships could take the form of venture capital investment, governmental district infrastructure investment and financial business competitive edge. ESSI can strenghten the resilience of the Icelandic economy and provide competitive edge for organizations with wide investment interests.

ESSI:
THE EARTH SYSTEMS SCIENCE INSTITUTE OF ICELAND
SCIENCE AND BUSINESS PLAN
November 2006
By Björn Erlingsson, Haraldur Sigurðsson and Björgólfur Thorsteinsson.

ASOF’s domain is stuctured around six main regional tasks intended to meet the ASOF goal of measuring the key ocean exchanges between the Arctic Ocean and Subarctic Seas and their impact both on the overturning circulation of the Northern North Atlantic and the Water Cycle. A 7th modelling task will provide the necessary link between the regional tasks

ASOF is a subprogram of International SEARCH (International Study of Environmental Arctic Change) and an endorsed project of CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability Study) and CliC (Climate and Cryosphere)